Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
